A Reason for Hope on Comprehensive Immigration Reform
Memo from National Immigration Forum
In the aftermath of last week’s presidential election, the prospects for immigration reform have suddenly brightened. Many in the Republican Party have been saying, in the past week, that the Party must learn how to broaden its appeal, particularly with Latino voters. As the USA Today editorial board noted, if Mr. Romney wasn’t so unpopular with Latino voters in this election, the outcome might have been different.
“Had Mitt Romney taken the 44% of the Hispanic vote that George W. Bush took in 2004, rather than the 27% that he actually got … [he] would have won the popular vote by about 1 million votes, rather than having lost it by about 3 million. Those votes would have shifted Florida, Colorado, Nevada and potentially other battleground states into the Republican column.”
Just two days after the election, on November 8, House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) said in an interview that he thinks the immigration issue has been around for “far too long.” “I think a comprehensive approach is long overdue, and I’m confident that the president, myself, others, can find the common ground to take care of this issue once and for all.”
Since then, many Republican Party leaders, inside and outside of Congress, have mentioned the need to deal with the immigration issue. (You can read a collection of those quotes here.) These leaders include some who previously supported reform, Senator John McCain and Representative Jeff Flake, for example, but backed away from it in the context of their own primary reelection fights.
Conservative constituency groups press for reform
Pro-reform conservative constituency groups are also speaking up for reform. On November 13, prominent leaders in the evangelical Christian community sent letters to President Obama, House Speaker John Boehner and Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, and Senate Majority and Minority leaders Harry Reid and Mitch McConnell urging them to meet with evangelical leaders to discuss immigration reform within the first 92 days of the new Congress. On November 12, a spokesperson for the U.S. Chamber of Commerce said that he is “hopeful” that immigration reform can be accomplished “within the year,” and that immigration reform would be a priority for the Chamber.
A priority for the president
For his part, the president said in a press conference on November 14 that he expects an immigration reform bill will be introduced in the next Congress very soon after his inauguration (January 20).
Push back in the Republican caucus
Even in the new post-election political environment, however, support for reform in Congress is obviously not unanimous. Even among those who are now saying reform is necessary, there is vagueness about the meaning of reform. A day after his remarks about a comprehensive approach to immigration drew fire from restrictionist members of his caucus in the House, Speaker Boehner appeared to back down, saying that what he meant was “a common-sense, step-by-step approach that secures our borders, allows us to enforce our laws and fix our broken immigration system.” One narrative that we are seeing develop in the news stories is that once the borders are secure, Congress can move on to regularizing the status of undocumented immigrants. Depending on the interpretation of “securing the border,” this could be an excuse for further obstruction on the issue.
Another poll shows public support for reform
There is another impetus for reform, aside from the perceived need for Republicans to attract a greater share of the Latino vote: In a poll released November 14 by ABC News and the Washington Post, 57% of the public supports a “path to citizenship for illegal immigrants.” Only 39% are opposed. The new poll reflects the exit polling conducted of voters in last week’s election, approximately two-thirds of whom supported offering undocumented immigrants legal status.
Too early for details
In advance of the convening of the next Congress convening, various legislators are talking about guest workers, visas for STEM graduates, and other pieces. In the Senate, Charles Schumer (D-N.Y., Chair of the Senate’s Immigration Subcommittee) and Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) are reported to be in talks to draw up an immigration proposal, dusting off a set of principles they developed two years ago, in a different context.
In sum, it is too early to speculate on what kind of legislation members of Congress will coalesce around as they try to figure out how to adjust to the new post-election political reality.
